Tuesday, May 24, 2005

Nuke Frist

New York Times (and dozens of other publications that suddenly decided that the Nuclear Option is interesting):

The 81-to-18 vote ends efforts by Democrats to prevent the Senate from approving the nominee, Priscilla R. Owen, by threatening a filibuster. It came after a compromise was reached Monday night by a bipartisan group of 14 senators that defused a potentially explosive parliamentary showdown over eliminating Senate filibusters against judicial nominees.

"We've got a chance to start over," Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, one of the 14 who helped forge the agreement, said. "That's why I voted to start over. And I hope we've learned our lesson."

The Washington Post had a summary of the "deal" reached by the group of 14 moderate senators:

On the more difficult issue of future judicial fights, the memo's signers vowed to filibuster nominees only "under extraordinary circumstances, and each signatory must use his or her own discretion and judgment in determining whether such circumstances exist." The paragraph retaining the right to filibuster -- considered the pact's most difficult question -- states: "In light of the spirit and continuing commitments made in this agreement, we commit to oppose the rules changes in the 109th Congress," which extends through 2006.

Several Democrats quickly declared victory, saying the language left Republicans no room to ban judicial filibusters. "The nuclear option is off the table," Democratic Whip Richard J. Durbin (Ill.) said on the Senate floor, moments after the negotiators announced their deal at a crowded news conference.

Atrios is somewhat hesitant, if not skeptical.

Senator Russ Feingold is unequivocally dissapointed:

This is not a good deal for the U.S. Senate or for the American people. Democrats should have stood together firmly against the bullying tactics of the Republican leadership abusing their power as they control both houses of Congress and the White House. Confirming unacceptable judicial nominations is simply a green light for the Bush administration to send more nominees who lack the judicial temperament or record to serve in these lifetime positions. I value the many traditions of the Senate, including the tradition of bipartisanship to forge consensus. I do not, however, value threatening to disregard an important Senate tradition, like occasional unlimited debate, when necessary. I respect all my colleagues very much who thought to end this playground squabble over judges, but I am disappointed in this deal.


I think Kos himself makes very valid points:

There are those who think any compromise is a sign of weakness, and there's little that can be said to change their mind. But here are the plain, unspun facts:

  • Democrats hold 44 seats in the 100 seat Senate. One independent sides with the Democrats, giving Dems a 10-seat deficit.
  • Reid had 49 votes. He eeded 51 to defeat Frist's nuclear option.
  • Reid needed at least two of four undecided Republicans.
  • Had Reid come up short, the filibuster would be dead in judicial matters.
  • If the filibuster was dead, Bush would've been able to put anyone on the Supreme Court. Anyone.

...... In order to save face, Republicans have gotten up or down votes on most of the handful of judges who are currently being filibustered. It's a price, but a relatively small one to pay to protect the filibuster during the next Supreme Court battle.

Given that we have a 10-seat deficit in the Senate, that's no small feat.



So basically... This compromise isn't the best we could've done. The best possible scenario is a mass public outrage that carries over into 2006, which would ruin the Repugs, which would hopefully also stop the judges.

So assuming the Democrats don't overuse the filibuster (which will probably be determined by the Republican Senators in the moderate coalition), they aren't doing too badly. They have until 2006 to narrow the margin in the Senate, garner public support, and get the moderates into the left. Now, if McCain & Co. think that they're grossly misusing the compromise, that could be problematic.

But overall... I'm happy. The filibuster is safe and sound, and Frist's nuclear option just nuked his presidential prospects in 2008... Actually, I kinda wanted to see him run as the GOP candidate, and LOSEEEEEEE. ^.-