Game changers: The favorite son.
In contrast to my last post on the negligible impact of a new FL/MI primary, I'll now shift your attention to an event that may have very well changed the course of this election.
We'll need some context to completely understand what happened, so before we begin, let's revisit the top of the Democratic primary schedule.
Although those paying attention expected it, Obama still surprised most with his win at the first contest in Iowa. The calendar then moved to New Hampshire, where Clinton pulled off an equally stunning win after being prematurely written off.
Focus was then placed on Nevada -- a state that was ultimately indecisive. Clinton won the state popular vote, which ended up getting more play in the media. Meanwhile, Obama won more of the state's delegates. Michigan and Florida were both stripped of their delegates, leaving them with no role in the selection process at this point in time.
This set the stage for a major showdown in South Carolina, the last contest prior to Super Tuesday.
What was at stake here went beyond the delegates; particularly for Obama, this was his last shot to demonstrate national viability prior to February 5th. Both candidates campaigned hard, with former president Clinton emphasizing his ties to the African-American community. With Edwards playing the role of a "favorite son," the results were up in the air... right?
Oh. Well then. I suppose a 28-point margin wasn't as close as people were expecting the contest to be. Obama's win here was nothing short of a blowout, and the press made sure that everyone knew about the first decisive win so far. Riding off of the momentum of this victory, his campaign picked up key endorsements from the Kennedys heading into Super Tuesday.
Having met the burden of viability placed on his candidacy, Obama performed extremely well on Februrary 5th. He manages to win the delegate battle that night, cementing his place in this race for a long time to come.
With the refresher on history out of the way, allow me to ask you this: What if there was a movement that had the capacity to challenge Obama's campaign in South Carolina?
Why, that would have been devastating, wouldn't it? Had the South Carolina results not been so favorable to Obama, his campaign would have struggled immensely in continuing forward. A virtual tie would have given him little to no momentum, while a loss could have left him dead in the water.
As it turns out, there was someone that rivaled Obama's appeal to the youth, among other demographics. The man was highly regarded by many -- he had a sharp mind with a great personality. He had a national presence unlike any other; universally liked, his candidacy was speculated on for months.
We were effectively one decision away from Obama's campaign being derailed by the antics of one man.
So, who's the person in question?
Everyone's favorite comedic pundit, Stephen Colbert.
As you may remember, Colbert launched his presidential bid late last year. He was to only run in South Carolina, challenging Edwards' "favorite son" status within the state. His candidacy ran into a few problems, but was eventually halted by the state Democratic party.
Imagine, for a moment, that Colbert was still on the ballot. Obama supporters tend to follow Comedy Central, as evidenced by the larger amount of viewer enthusiasm surrounding his candidacy compared to Clinton's.
Prior to rallying around Obama, however, they held the view that the current field of candidates were either unfit for office or not viable for election. They would have been more than happy to take a break from voting in the lesser of two evils. They got a kick out of the joke, and hey... it's just one primary, right?
So election day comes, and Obama's perceived lack of viability combined with Colbert's national recognition allows him to make a decent showing at the primary.
Decent enough that, surprisingly, Obama either loses the state or squeaks by with a win due to the split vote with Edwards and Colbert on the ballot. This significantly reduces the momentum he had, causing him to do far worse on Super Tuesday. He finds himself behind by hundreds of delegates on Feb. 6th and decides to concede shortly thereafter.
All because of a little joke by Comedy Central.
Is it far-fetched to assume that the network would have allowed it to reach this point? Perhaps. I'm not so sure they would have been willing to meddle with the process to that extent.
Would it have been game changing? Damn right it would be. Florida and Michigan can only dream of being as relevant.
We'll need some context to completely understand what happened, so before we begin, let's revisit the top of the Democratic primary schedule.
Although those paying attention expected it, Obama still surprised most with his win at the first contest in Iowa. The calendar then moved to New Hampshire, where Clinton pulled off an equally stunning win after being prematurely written off.
Focus was then placed on Nevada -- a state that was ultimately indecisive. Clinton won the state popular vote, which ended up getting more play in the media. Meanwhile, Obama won more of the state's delegates. Michigan and Florida were both stripped of their delegates, leaving them with no role in the selection process at this point in time.
This set the stage for a major showdown in South Carolina, the last contest prior to Super Tuesday.
What was at stake here went beyond the delegates; particularly for Obama, this was his last shot to demonstrate national viability prior to February 5th. Both candidates campaigned hard, with former president Clinton emphasizing his ties to the African-American community. With Edwards playing the role of a "favorite son," the results were up in the air... right?
Oh. Well then. I suppose a 28-point margin wasn't as close as people were expecting the contest to be. Obama's win here was nothing short of a blowout, and the press made sure that everyone knew about the first decisive win so far. Riding off of the momentum of this victory, his campaign picked up key endorsements from the Kennedys heading into Super Tuesday.
Having met the burden of viability placed on his candidacy, Obama performed extremely well on Februrary 5th. He manages to win the delegate battle that night, cementing his place in this race for a long time to come.
With the refresher on history out of the way, allow me to ask you this: What if there was a movement that had the capacity to challenge Obama's campaign in South Carolina?
Why, that would have been devastating, wouldn't it? Had the South Carolina results not been so favorable to Obama, his campaign would have struggled immensely in continuing forward. A virtual tie would have given him little to no momentum, while a loss could have left him dead in the water.
As it turns out, there was someone that rivaled Obama's appeal to the youth, among other demographics. The man was highly regarded by many -- he had a sharp mind with a great personality. He had a national presence unlike any other; universally liked, his candidacy was speculated on for months.
We were effectively one decision away from Obama's campaign being derailed by the antics of one man.
So, who's the person in question?
Everyone's favorite comedic pundit, Stephen Colbert.
As you may remember, Colbert launched his presidential bid late last year. He was to only run in South Carolina, challenging Edwards' "favorite son" status within the state. His candidacy ran into a few problems, but was eventually halted by the state Democratic party.
Imagine, for a moment, that Colbert was still on the ballot. Obama supporters tend to follow Comedy Central, as evidenced by the larger amount of viewer enthusiasm surrounding his candidacy compared to Clinton's.
Prior to rallying around Obama, however, they held the view that the current field of candidates were either unfit for office or not viable for election. They would have been more than happy to take a break from voting in the lesser of two evils. They got a kick out of the joke, and hey... it's just one primary, right?
So election day comes, and Obama's perceived lack of viability combined with Colbert's national recognition allows him to make a decent showing at the primary.
Decent enough that, surprisingly, Obama either loses the state or squeaks by with a win due to the split vote with Edwards and Colbert on the ballot. This significantly reduces the momentum he had, causing him to do far worse on Super Tuesday. He finds himself behind by hundreds of delegates on Feb. 6th and decides to concede shortly thereafter.
All because of a little joke by Comedy Central.
Is it far-fetched to assume that the network would have allowed it to reach this point? Perhaps. I'm not so sure they would have been willing to meddle with the process to that extent.
Would it have been game changing? Damn right it would be. Florida and Michigan can only dream of being as relevant.
posted by Jason at 11:35 AM
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