Obama previews the next ninety days.
As of 9:40PM PST, Vermont has been projected for Obama. Rhode Island, Texas, and Ohio have been projected for Clinton.
It was certainly not the night the Obama camp was hoping for. Clinton's victory speech pushed the idea of going all the way to the convention, and Obama's response was a subtle concession towards this notion. Dean must be furious with the news.
On the other hand, perhaps we shouldn't be surprised with these developments. In early February, Bloomberg News got their hands on an internal document from the Obama campaign with projections for the rest of the primary season. It was briefly reported on political blogs before being promptly dismissed.
With fifteen primaries and caucuses held since the leak, the spreadsheet has been remarkably accurate in predicting the results. The one state that was projected incorrectly was Maine, which was believed to be a narrow Clinton win.
At the request of a friend, I'll be toying with the numbers tonight to provide an updated preview for the remainder of this race. In the interim, Obama's spreadsheet is as good of a projection as anyone else has been able to provide. Keep an eye on it.
It was certainly not the night the Obama camp was hoping for. Clinton's victory speech pushed the idea of going all the way to the convention, and Obama's response was a subtle concession towards this notion. Dean must be furious with the news.
On the other hand, perhaps we shouldn't be surprised with these developments. In early February, Bloomberg News got their hands on an internal document from the Obama campaign with projections for the rest of the primary season. It was briefly reported on political blogs before being promptly dismissed.
With fifteen primaries and caucuses held since the leak, the spreadsheet has been remarkably accurate in predicting the results. The one state that was projected incorrectly was Maine, which was believed to be a narrow Clinton win.
At the request of a friend, I'll be toying with the numbers tonight to provide an updated preview for the remainder of this race. In the interim, Obama's spreadsheet is as good of a projection as anyone else has been able to provide. Keep an eye on it.
posted by Jason at 9:10 PM
2 Comments:
Should note that according to those predictions, it would be Obama with 1806 of the delegates, and 1789 for Clinton, effectively, down to the wire with supers deciding. That prediction, even if expected, doesn't spell good news for Obama with my understanding of the way superdelegates are leaning.
The spreadsheet was conservative in projecting victories in Feb. races, which explains why it only showed +74 Obama going into yesterday. Not sure what you mean re: superdelegate leanings, either. See the recap in my latest post. :)
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