FL & MI: Much ado about nothing.
Update I: Immediately after posting, The New Republic breaks the story of a new Michigan caucus being announced in the next few days. Stay tuned.
Update II: Tweaked my analysis to make it even more favorable towards Clinton.
As the race tightens up, focus has shifted back to the voters of Florida and Michigan. Their contests were conducted in the latter part of January, but the results are in limbo as they were held in open defiance of party rules. With a combined total of over 300 delegates at stake, it has led many to believe that the DNC's decision regarding these two states would be game-changing.
It won't be, and here's why.
Dean went on the record yesterday and stated that they will not allow the current results to stand. The two options he provided were to either allow the credentials committee to decide on the matter or to hold a sanctioned re-vote.
Now, if we are to take Dean at his word, then he's realistically presenting only one option if the states want to have their votes counted. As Ambinder points out, the credentials committee will be composed of 186 members. 25 of these members will be appointed by Dean, putting the states at a distinct disadvantage. The rest are decided based on the results of the primaries, which will likely mean that Clinton and Obama will split them evenly. Assuming that Obama's faction is against seating the delegations, this leaves no viable method for the current results to stand.
Given this, it's no surprise that both campaigns are finally warming up to the idea of a re-vote. TPM reports that a top Clinton supporter in Florida is not only supporting the idea, but that he's also pressuring the DNC to cover the expenses. They also note that Howard Wolfson, spokesperson for the Clinton campaign, recently acknowledged being open to a new contest. Ben Smith covers the other end of the story, revealing that the Obama campaign is open to a "fair remedy" to the situation.
With the circumstances set, let's now take a look at how this would all play out. We'll ignore the possibility that the states won't be seated, as it would result in no change in the end result of the race.
Assuming that a re-vote is held, we need to bear in mind how the nomination is decided. The number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination is based on a simple majority of available delegates. With 4,048 total delegates in play this year, the current number needed to win is 2,025.
This obviously changes if Florida and Michigan come into play. How much it changes is uncertain; Ambinder muses that it would be "about 2,055". I'm not sure where he got his numbers from -- a simple majority of this year's available delegates plus the two states would be 2,207. Considering that 2,162 delegates were needed to win in 2004, this estimate is probably more accurate.
So now the bar has been raised to 2,207 delegates. The re-vote would put a total of 366 delegates in play: 210 delegates from Florida, 156 delegates from Michigan.
The most optimistic estimates for the Clinton campaign still pit her at -50 pledged delegates prior to the convention. Thus, for Clinton to match Obama's pledged delegate count at the convention, she would have to win 208 delegates -- 57% of what's at stake. As noted in my last post, Clinton would need roughly 72% of the popular vote to win 55% of the remaining delegates.
As it stands, Florida voted 50% Clinton, 33% Obama, and 14% Edwards. Michigan was 55% Clinton, 40% uncommitted. For the sake of simplicity, we'll ignore all of Obama's current momentum, grant him 80% of the Edwards vote, and give him all of the uncommitted vote.
We'll then assume Clinton bias since she has been the one consistently fighting for the voices of these states' residents, so we'll arbitrarily assign an additional +16% advantage to Clinton.
Based on this scenario, we'd have Florida at 58% Clinton/36% Obama and Michigan at 63% Clinton/32% Obama.
This very optimistic estimate would certainly lead to Clinton gaining delegates. If the March 4th primaries taught us anything, however, it's that she won't be gaining much -- certainly not enough to overcome a +50 pledged delegate lead.
So in essence, all this talk about Florida and Michigan is just another way for the media to continue talking about this race. Their votes certainly matter; there should be a sanctioned contest, if only so we don't disenfranchise voters.
But let's not fool ourselves -- this isn't going to change anything.
Update II: Tweaked my analysis to make it even more favorable towards Clinton.
As the race tightens up, focus has shifted back to the voters of Florida and Michigan. Their contests were conducted in the latter part of January, but the results are in limbo as they were held in open defiance of party rules. With a combined total of over 300 delegates at stake, it has led many to believe that the DNC's decision regarding these two states would be game-changing.
It won't be, and here's why.
Dean went on the record yesterday and stated that they will not allow the current results to stand. The two options he provided were to either allow the credentials committee to decide on the matter or to hold a sanctioned re-vote.
Now, if we are to take Dean at his word, then he's realistically presenting only one option if the states want to have their votes counted. As Ambinder points out, the credentials committee will be composed of 186 members. 25 of these members will be appointed by Dean, putting the states at a distinct disadvantage. The rest are decided based on the results of the primaries, which will likely mean that Clinton and Obama will split them evenly. Assuming that Obama's faction is against seating the delegations, this leaves no viable method for the current results to stand.
Given this, it's no surprise that both campaigns are finally warming up to the idea of a re-vote. TPM reports that a top Clinton supporter in Florida is not only supporting the idea, but that he's also pressuring the DNC to cover the expenses. They also note that Howard Wolfson, spokesperson for the Clinton campaign, recently acknowledged being open to a new contest. Ben Smith covers the other end of the story, revealing that the Obama campaign is open to a "fair remedy" to the situation.
With the circumstances set, let's now take a look at how this would all play out. We'll ignore the possibility that the states won't be seated, as it would result in no change in the end result of the race.
Assuming that a re-vote is held, we need to bear in mind how the nomination is decided. The number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination is based on a simple majority of available delegates. With 4,048 total delegates in play this year, the current number needed to win is 2,025.
This obviously changes if Florida and Michigan come into play. How much it changes is uncertain; Ambinder muses that it would be "about 2,055". I'm not sure where he got his numbers from -- a simple majority of this year's available delegates plus the two states would be 2,207. Considering that 2,162 delegates were needed to win in 2004, this estimate is probably more accurate.
So now the bar has been raised to 2,207 delegates. The re-vote would put a total of 366 delegates in play: 210 delegates from Florida, 156 delegates from Michigan.
The most optimistic estimates for the Clinton campaign still pit her at -50 pledged delegates prior to the convention. Thus, for Clinton to match Obama's pledged delegate count at the convention, she would have to win 208 delegates -- 57% of what's at stake. As noted in my last post, Clinton would need roughly 72% of the popular vote to win 55% of the remaining delegates.
As it stands, Florida voted 50% Clinton, 33% Obama, and 14% Edwards. Michigan was 55% Clinton, 40% uncommitted. For the sake of simplicity, we'll ignore all of Obama's current momentum, grant him 80% of the Edwards vote, and give him all of the uncommitted vote.
We'll then assume Clinton bias since she has been the one consistently fighting for the voices of these states' residents, so we'll arbitrarily assign an additional +16% advantage to Clinton.
Based on this scenario, we'd have Florida at 58% Clinton/36% Obama and Michigan at 63% Clinton/32% Obama.
This very optimistic estimate would certainly lead to Clinton gaining delegates. If the March 4th primaries taught us anything, however, it's that she won't be gaining much -- certainly not enough to overcome a +50 pledged delegate lead.
So in essence, all this talk about Florida and Michigan is just another way for the media to continue talking about this race. Their votes certainly matter; there should be a sanctioned contest, if only so we don't disenfranchise voters.
But let's not fool ourselves -- this isn't going to change anything.
posted by Jason at 3:10 PM
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